Monthly Oil News Commentary: January – February 2018
As the crude oil prices rise, the government may ask upstream firms like ONGC to bear a part of the kerosene and LPG subsidies, India Ratings and Research said. Producers ONGC and OIL as well as gas utility GAIL (India) Ltd were in past asked to bear between one-third to half of the under-recovery fuel retailers incurred on selling LPG and kerosene below market rate. This subsidy sharing scheme ended last fiscal. India Ratings said given the sharp increase in international crude price, oil marketing companies may be required to bear a part of the under-recoveries. This would be on the lines of past when the government capped the subsidy burden it was willing to share per kilogram and per litre on LPG and kerosene, respectively. Any under-recovery over and above the level up to which the government can bear is to be borne by upstream and oil marketing companies, it said.
The Indian crude oil basket comprises 73 percent sour-grade Dubai and Oman crudes, and the balance in sweet-grade Brent, closed December 2017 at $62.29/bbl according to the oil ministry. The government remained non-committal on cutting excise duty on petrol and diesel to reduce retail prices. Petrol and diesel prices in India are to a “large extent” aligned to international rates, IOC said in response to the charges of government meddling in fixing of fuel prices. The prices are revised daily based on 15-day rolling average rate of their international benchmark. The prices at petrol pumps of state-owned fuel retailers like IOC were cut by 1-3 paisa every day in the first fortnight of December. They started moving up immediately after polling for assembly elections in Gujarat concluded, leading to speculation that government may have asked oil companies to hold on to the prices. State-owned oil companies in June last year dumped the 15-year old practice of revising rates on 1st and 16th of every month and instead adopted a dynamic daily price revision to instantly reflect changes in cost. Crude oil, natural gas, diesel, petrol and ATF have not been included in the ambit of GST as of now. The CII said till such time that the five are included in GST, C Form should be continued to avoid high tax incidence on these products. As per the earlier provisions of CST Act, a purchaser can make the interstate purchase of the non-GST goods by availing concessional central sales tax rate of 2 percent against Form-C. Hitherto, fertiliser manufacturers, power producers, automobile manufacturers and other industries were buying natural gas and other petroleum products by paying CST of 2 per cent against Form-C. The central government vide Taxation Laws Amendment Act 2017, amended the definition of ‘Goods’ under the CST Act to include only crude petroleum, diesel, petrol, ATF, natural gas and alcoholic liquor for human consumption. This meant that fertiliser companies are not eligible for C Form as the gas is used to manufacture urea and not for manufacture of natural gas. Likewise, automobile manufacturers are not eligible for C Form for inter-state purchase of diesel, petrol or natural gas, which they have to mandatorily fill in the tanks of new vehicles. The industry association said post GST, since Form-C is not available for inter-state purchase of goods and so the extra tax burden will be shifted to the consumer. It suggested that petroleum products, natural gas, electricity, alcohol and real estate should be covered under GST. Alternatively, since VAT is non-creditable tax, VAT rate should be reduced to 4 percent or lower which was the effective rate when credit on VAT was available before July 1.
The Chief Economic Advisor called for petroleum products to be brought under the ambit of the GST. He also made a case for one rate under the GST for all goods and services down the line. Petrol and diesel prices rose to a three-year high across metro cities. Petrol prices in the national capital were at ₹ 72.49/litre, the highest in over three years. Petrol prices in Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai were at ₹ 75.19, ₹ 80.39 and ₹ 75.18/litre respectively — all three-year highs. Similarly, diesel prices have also been hitting record levels.
The October 2017 excise duty cut cost the government ₹ 260 billion in annual revenue and about ₹ 130 billion during the remaining part of the current financial year that ends on March 31, 2018. The government had between November 2014 and January 2016 raised excise duty on petrol and diesel on nine occasions to take away gains arising from plummeting global oil prices. Just 4 states and one union territory have cut local sales tax or VAT on petrol and diesel since the October 2017 decision of the Centre to reduce excise duty on the two fuels. As petrol and diesel prices soared to a three-year high, the Centre on October 3, 2017 reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹ 2 per litre each and asked states governments to match it with a cut in VAT. The states which reduced VAT following the October 3, 2017 cut in excise duty were Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. The Centre has cut excise duty only once in October 2017 but raised excise duty on nine occasions to take away benefits of sliding international oil prices between late 2014 and January 2016. Prices of petrol and diesel were ‘freed’ from administrative control from June 26, 2010 and October 10, 2014, respectively.
India has the highest retail prices of petrol and diesel among South Asian nations as taxes account for about 40-50 percent of the pump prices. Petrol and diesel account for about half of India’s refined fuel consumption. A cut in excise duty on petrol and diesel in the budget, due to be unveiled on February 1, would pose challenges as the government is struggling to tackle a widening fiscal gap amid falling tax revenues due to the implementation of a GST regime from July. In 2016/17, the petroleum sector contributed around ₹ 5.2 trillion ($81 billion), about a third of total revenue receipts, for federal and state finances. India raised excise duty nine times between November 2014 and January 2016 to shore up federal finances as global oil prices fell, but then cut the tax last October by ₹ 2/litre. The ministry has also sought inclusion of petrol, diesel, jet fuel and natural gas in the GST to help companies claim tax credits against the tax paid on the purchase of equipment meant to produce refined fuel. The oil ministry said the addition of refined products in GST will help reduce retail prices even if the government levies a charge on top of its highest GST rate of 28 percent. The ministry has also sought federal support for laying fuel and gas pipelines in the northeast of the country to give the region a boost. Economic development in India has largely been concentrated in the western and southern states that have better infrastructure and more accessible energy supplies.
States are not in favour of including petrol and diesel into GST at the moment, ruling out any immediate levy of the new indirect tax on these petroleum products. While GST was rolled out on July 1, real estate as well as crude oil, jet fuel or ATF, natural gas, diesel and petrol were kept out of its purview. This meant that the products continued to attract duties like central excise and VAT. The five petroleum items have been kept out of GST as they are considered cash cows, giving both the Centre and states bulk of their tax revenues. But keeping them out has created compliance issues including taking input tax credit.
ONGC completed the acquisition of government-owned fuel retailer HPCL through an all cash deal worth ₹ 369.15 billion, the company said. The company had tied up ₹ 350 billion with seven banks including three private and four public sector banks to fund the acquisition. While ONGC has secured loans for ₹ 350 billion through banks, the details of funding the rest of the acquisition amount, ₹ 19.15 billion, are not in public domain. The combined market value of ONGC and HPCL is estimated to be around ₹ 3119.25 billion, or $49 billion, comparable with Russian energy giant Rosneft’s $61 billion. The acquisition of HPCL by ONGC has paved the way for the country’s first vertically-integrated oil major. As per the government, the ONGC-HPCL merger is an innovative vertical economic integration of companies being done with a motive that goes beyond mere financial consideration. The aim behind the move was not just financial consideration and that the merger decision was taken considering the price volatility in the oil and gas industry which created the need for a company which could cushion the shocks of oil prices. The government has set a disinvestment target of ₹ 725 billion for the financial year 2017-2018, of which ₹ 543.37 billion has been raised so far. India Ratings said ONGC’s acquisition of HPCL will be credit neutral for ratings of HPCL. ONGC, which is 68.94 percent owned by the government, will acquire the government’s 51.11 percent stake in HPCL for ₹ 369.15 billion. Despite the change in ownership, HPCL will continue to operate as a separate entity with a strong brand. Its strategic importance to the government is likely to remain intact, given the company’s role as the State’s extended arm for fuel policy implementation. It could use one or more of the three sources for funding, fresh debt, cash and cash equivalents, and monetisation of its stake in entities such as GAIL, IOC and Petronet LNG Ltd. The combined value of its stake in the three entities is about ₹ 344 billion. For HPCL, the acquisition may result in some synergies in crude oil procurement with Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, which is 71.63 percent owned by ONGC. HPCL, along with HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and MRPL, represented 15.3 percent of India’s total crude import volume of 249 mt. Also, HPCL may be able to capitalise on ONGC’s petrochemical expertise while expanding its footprint in the segment. The combined entity would be the third-largest refiner in India, with a refining capacity of 43.1 mt behind IOC’s 80.8 mt and RIL’s 62 mt. India Ratings said HPCL may have to resort to additional borrowings in case it was to acquire ONGC’s stake in MRPL for cash. ONGC’s stake in MRPL is worth ₹ 164 billion. ONGC-HPCL deal is unlikely to alter government subsidies for kerosene and LPG.
The government’s plan to farm out a 60 percent stake in about 15 fields of ONGC and OIL to private players might lead to a dual system of contracts. The two state-owned companies may have to continue to pay royalties and cess. This is a major dilemma before the policymakers as to whether two parties can have separate sets of contracts for the same fields. The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons has reportedly zeroed in on 15 fields, 11 of ONGC and four of OIL, including ONGC’s four major oilfields in Gujarat like Kalok, Gandhar, Santhal, and Ankleshwar. These 15 are estimated to have a cumulative reserve of 791.2 mt of crude oil and 333.46 bcm of gas. The plan to rope in private companies is part of the government’s production enhancement policy. However, the government is yet to come up with a Cabinet note in this regard. More than 40 fields of state-run producers have been identified for production enhancement through the technical services model.
The government virtually ruled out giving statutory powers to upstream oil and gas regulator DGH saying the sector has not fully developed and needs government support. There are two regulatory bodies in the oil and gas sector – the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board, which is a regulator for the downstream activities like laying of pipelines and fuel marketing but without powers to review pricing. The DGH is a technical arm of the oil ministry which overseas upstream oil and gas exploration and production activities. Various committees have suggested creation of an independent, statutory regulator for the upstream oil sector. He said the sector has not developed fully and still looks at the government for reforms. In 2013, a committee, headed by former finance secretary Vijay Kelkar, had recommended hiving off the DGH’s financial oversight function and vesting it with the income tax authorities. The DGH currently manages petroleum resources besides monitoring PSCs, and assists the government in auctioning oil and gas exploration fields. In 2011, a panel led by former finance secretary Ashok Chawla advised the government to turn the DGH into an ‘independent technical office’ attached to the oil ministry and establish an upstream regulator to focus on regulatory functions. It also said the reconstituted DGH as well as the regulator must not have staff on deputation from regulated firms. A similar panel had in 2001 recommended the setting up of an Upstream Hydrocarbon Regulatory Board, giving DGH a techno-administrative role as a part of the oil ministry.
India was scheduled to lift its biggest volume of Iranian crude in nine months in December, helping to shore up the OPEC producer’s oil exports to Asia last month. Asian buyers were scheduled to lift 1.92 million bpd of Iranian crude in December, down 7 percent from the actual loadings in the previous month. India’s scheduled crude oil loadings from Iran, excluding condensate, an ultra-light oil, were about 550,000 bpd last month, up 78 percent from the previous month and the highest since March.
State oil companies have planned a capital spending of ₹ 890 billion ($14 billion) in 2018-19, half of which will go into E&P. In the current fiscal, these companies had targeted an expenditure of ₹ 874 billion, 70% of which has been spent in the first three quarters. The allocation of ₹ 480 billion towards exploration and production in Budget 2018-19 is lower than ₹ 539.6 billion planned for this year. Spending on refining and marketing would rise to ₹ 358 billion from ₹ 312 billion in 2017-18. Investment in petrochemicals would nearly double to ₹ 39.52 billion next fiscal year from ₹ 21.56 billion in the current year. ONGC has planned the highest investment among all state oil firms, with a capex target of a little over ₹ 320 billion in 2018-19. This would go into developing new oil and gas fields and enhancing production from existing fields. For the current year, its planned capex is about ₹ 372 billion, including a $1.2 billion payment for GSPC’s stake in the KG Basin asset. ONGC’s capex figure will get revised upward sharply after factoring in the ₹ 370 billion purchase of government stake in HPCL.
Saudi Aramco, the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, is considering entering India as part of its Asian expansion. The Saudi government has said it plans to sell about 5 percent of Aramco, hoping to raise some $100 billion or more in what would likely be the world’s biggest initial public offer.
Kochi crude oil refinery in Kerala, operated by fuel retailer BPCL has completed its expansion project to become the largest public sector refinery in the country, surpassing the capacity of Paradip and Panipat refineries operated by the largest retailer IOC. BPCL completed the ₹ 165 billion Integrated Refinery Expansion Project (IREP) at Kochi in October last year, ramping up the capacity of the unit to 15.5 mt from the earlier 12.4 mt. That compares with 15 mt capacity each of IOC’s Paradip refinery in Odisha and Panipat refinery in Haryana. The Kochi oil refinery processed 1.2 mt crude in December 2017 as compared to 1 mt processed in the corresponding month a year ago, data from the PPAC, an arm of the oil ministry, shows. India had a total installed crude oil refining capacity of 247.6 mt at the end of December 2017 including 69.2 mt operated by IOC, 36.5 mt operated by BPCL and 27.1 mt operated by the third state-owned retailer HPCL.
India will showcase its oil sector policy reforms and the investment opportunities at the 16th IEF Ministerial, slated for April in New Delhi, where scores of ministers, top officials and industry executives from across the globe are expected to participate. IEF, comprising 72 member countries, is one of the biggest global forum of oil and gas producers and is currently headed by Saudi Arabia. The Ministerial will be held from April 10 to 12. Ninety percent of the oil and gas producers and consumers would be represented at the event, which would therefore be a good opportunity to present India as an investment destination. The issue of ‘reasonable and responsible pricing’ and the long-standing Indian demand of junking the so-called Asian premium will also be discussed at the Ministerial. Oil consumers have become ‘more assertive’ and they will have a bigger say in the global oil market now, Pradhan said referring to how the global oil industry dynamics has changed over the years. A supply glut resulting in lower prices for the last three years has given heavy consumers like India and China a bigger say in the global markets.
The Jammu and Kashmir government said it has achieved a target of 75 percent in the implementation of Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana by LPG connections to 370,000 below poverty line households in the state. The females from BPL households were provided with sets of chulha, cylinder, gas pipe, regulator and safety manual.
India needs to increase its refining capacity to 600 million mt by 2040 to meet the rising demand for fuel. About $300 billion would be invested in next 10 years in energy and hydrocarbon sectors. India has decided to meet international best practices by leapfrogging to BS-VI norms by April 2020 in the entire country and by April 2018 in NCT Delhi. The government has planned to set up West Coast Refinery cum Petrochemical Complex of 60 mmtpa with an estimated investment of ₹ 2700 billion. Foundation stone for another grass root Refinery cum Petrochemical Complex in Barmer, Rajasthan with an investment of ₹ 43,000 billion was laid in January 2018.
Indian oil consumption in 2017 grew at its slowest in four years, according to government statistics, hit by the government’s demonetisation move and a tax increase that knocked the gain in fuel use back to a modest 2.3 percent. The low growth also coincided with another year of weak, albeit improving, new vehicle sales. India imports almost all of its oil, shipping in around 4.2 million bpd of crude in 2017, according to trade flow data. India saw some structural demand changes that affected the use of refined oil products. A government push for household to use more LPG has India challenging China as the world’s top LPG importer. For 2018, energy consultancy FGE expects India’s oil demand growth to improve to 4.3 percent. India’s slow oil demand growth has surprised many, given the country has often been touted as the next China in terms of rising oil consumption. If an Indian citizen with an average salary buys 10 gallons of gasoline per month, that would represent nearly 30 percent of the person’s income, while the average Chinese would fork out just 5 percent, data from statistics company Numbeo showed.
Rest of the World
Global oil markets are tightening quickly on falling supply from Venezuela, which posted 2017’s biggest unplanned output fall and could see a further decline in 2018, the IEA said. Debt and infrastructure problems cut Venezuela’s December output to 1.61 million bpd, somewhere near a 30-year low. That helped oil prices top $70 per barrel in early January, their highest level in three years. As a result of lower Venezuelan production, the IEA said OPEC’s crude output in December fell to 32.23 million bpd, boosting the group’s compliance with a deal to curb output to 129 percent. OPEC agreed to lower production in 2017 and has agreed to maintain output cuts for the whole of 2018 to help bring oil stocks in OECD industrialized countries down to their 5-year average. The IEA said that if OPEC and its non-OPEC allies maintained good compliance with the output deal, oil markets would balance in 2018. The recovery in oil prices and a decline in global oil stocks has been helped by robust global demand growth in 2017 but it will slow down in 2018, the IEA said. It kept its oil demand growth estimate for 2018 unchanged at 1.3 million bpd, down from 1.6 million bpd in 2017, mainly due to the impact of higher oil prices and changing patterns of oil use in China.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecasts, saying oil markets have rebalanced six months sooner than expected, citing steady demand growth and continuing compliance with OPEC -led supply cuts. The bank’s three, six and twelve-month Brent oil price forecasts were raised to $75, $82.50 and $75 a barrel respectively, from $62 previously. However, Goldman expects the price to dip again as US shale producers pump more oil to benefit from the price reaction to lower global inventories. Goldman sees a global oil market deficit of 0.2 million bpd in 2018, followed by a global surplus of 0.73 million bpd in 2019. Oil prices pared early gains to stay little changed as OPEC’s strong compliance with a supply reduction pact offset news that US production topped 10 million bpd for the first time in nearly half a century.
OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers have a consensus that they should continue cooperating on production after the end of 2018, when their current agreement on production cuts expires. If oil inventories increase in 2018 as some in the market expect, producers may have to consider rolling the supply cut agreement into 2019, but the exact mechanism for cooperation next year has not yet been decided.
In addition to the OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts of 1.8 million bpd that are due to last until the end of 2018, oil prices have found support from eight consecutive weeks of US crude inventory drops. US commercial crude stocks fell by almost 5 million barrels in the week to January 5, to 419.5 million barrels. That was slightly below the five-year average of just over 420 million barrels, the target for OPEC and others cutting output. But the IEA, warned that while oil prices at $65 to $70 per barrel are good for oil producers now, there IEA also said that there might be a further decline in oil production from OPEC member Venezuela in 2018 as its economic crisis hits output.
Surging shale production is poised to push US oil output to more than 10 million barrels per day – toppling a record set in 1970 and crossing a threshold few could have imagined even a decade ago. And this new record, expected within days, likely won’t last long. The US government forecasts that the nation’s production will climb to 11 million barrels a day by late 2019, a level that would rival Russia, the world’s top producer. US energy exports now compete with Middle East oil for buyers in Asia. Daily trading volumes of US oil futures contracts have more doubled in the past decade, averaging more than 1.2 billion barrels per day in 2017, according to exchange operator CME Group. The US oil price benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, is now watched closely worldwide by foreign customers of US gasoline, diesel and crude. Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said that the OPEC member’s oil output capacity is nearing 5 million barrels per day, but the country will remain in full compliance with its output target under a global pact to cut supplies. Luaibi said the supply cut agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers should continue despite a rise in oil prices. The deal between the OPEC and Russia to cut 1.8 million barrels per day of crude, which started in January 2017, is due to last until the end of 2018. Luaibi said current Iraq’s oil production is about 4.3 million barrels per day. Luaibi also said that his ministry plans to conclude three contracts with international gas companies by mid-2018 to utilize gas from Basra, Maysan and Nassiriyah southern provinces.
Mexico has raised the bar on oil contracts in Latin America after sweetening terms to attract international energy firms, luring $93 billion in future investment in the region’s first big auction this year. Mexico awarded 19 of 29 deepwater blocks onoffer, comfortably more than the seven areas expected to be assigned. Anglo-Dutch oil major Royal Dutch Shell emerged as the biggest winner, with nine blocks. Unique for generous terms such as setting a cap on royalties that oil firms can pledge to the government in bids, Mexico faces off this year with Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador and Uruguay. They will all hold auctions for oil and gas fields in 2018 that require billions of dollars in investment from foreign firms. Mexico is due to hold major auctions in March and July. While Brazil’s prolific deepwater presalt oilfields are expected to attract aggressive bidding from oil majors, other regional rivals could be forced to revise the terms of their auctions if Mexico scores another win in its next auction for shallow water areas in March, analysts said. Oil prices have reached three-year highs near $70 per barrel in 2018, giving the world’s top energy companies a cash boost and improving the chances that they will have the funds needed for big-ticket projects in Latin American. After the government of Mexico started auctioning oilfields in 2015, it tweaked the terms of the bidding process several times, following a historic energy reform that ended state oil firm Pemex’s 75-year monopoly over the sector. The liberalization, the most ambitious plank of President Enrique Pena Nieto’s economic policy, started just as oil prices crashed in 2013-2014.
State oil producer Saudi Aramco is expected to launch a tender in July to build facilities to expand its Marjan oilfield while another tender for the Berri oilfield expansion is expected by the third or fourth quarter of this year. The planned projects are further proof that Saudi Aramco is pushing ahead with oil investments to maintain capacity while also meeting domestic demand for gas to fuel industrial growth. International engineering and construction firms have expressed interest in bidding to build oil and gas facilities at Marjan oilfield whose development is expected to cost more than $10 billion. The expansion will increase the capacity of Marjan, currently at 500,000 bpd, by 300,000 bpd of Arab medium crude. A new gas plant in Tanajib which will handle 2.7 billion standard cubic feet per day is due to be built and the capacity of the NGL fractionation plant at Wasit will expand too. As for Berri, development could cost between $6-8 billion. Aramco plans to raise capacity at the field by 250,000 bpd of Arab light and raise production of associated gas. The construction packages for Marjan and Berri are expected to be awarded next year and both projects are expected to be completed in 2022.
China’s NDRC said it will launch a fresh crackdown on oil refiners that expand capacity without official approval, the latest sweeping move by Beijing to curb unfettered growth in fuel output and illicit oil trade. NDRC said it will close refineries with less than 2 mt per year (40,000 bpd) of capacity if they are found to violate regulations. The penalty for larger refineries will be to curb any expansion projects. Even so, China’s refineries have been churning out and exporting bumper volumes of diesel and gasoline, in a race for profits.
Russia held firm as China’s top crude oil supplier in December for the 10th month and racked up its second year as the No.1 supplier to China in 2017, the data from the General Administration of Customs showed, leaving rival exporter Saudi Arabia in second place once more. Shipments from Russia hit 5.03 million tonnes in December, down 0.2 percent from a year earlier, pushing up its full-year supply by 13.8 percent to 59.7 mt, or 1.194 million bpd. Saudi Arabia’s December shipments were up 31.7 percent from a year ago at 4.71 mt, or about 1.11 million bpd. Whole-year shipments from the Kingdom, OPEC’s top supplier, grew 2.3 percent to 52.18 million tonnes, or 1.044 million bpd, the data showed.
Russia’s Sakhalin-1 oil project, led by ExxonMobil, has ditched plans to raise output by a quarter this year after it was ordered by the authorities to return to previous lower production limits. Sakhalin-1 operates under a Production Sharing Agreement struck in the mid-1990s and all plans must be run by local government. ExxonMobil had received preliminary approval for a new quota in December and set output for January at 250,000 to 260,000 bpd, up from 200,000 bpd last year. But the firm was ordered by the authorities this month to return to the old quota of 200,000 bpd. Sakhalin-1 was now operating under the production quota of 200,000 bpd. Russia’s energy ministry said Sakhalin-1 would continue to operate under previous quotas until the Natural Resources Ministry finished approving a new production scheme. The withdrawal of approval for increased production meant Sakhalin-1 shareholders had to reduce their schedule for Sokol crude loadings for January-March. Under the original schedule based on a production rise, 13 cargoes of 95,000 tonnes each were to be loaded from the De-Kastri terminal on Russia’s Pacific coast in January, compared to nine in December, traders said. In February and March, Sokol crude exports had been set at 11 and 12 cargoes, respectively, traders said. After ExxonMobil was instructed to cut production, loading plans were decreased to 11 cargoes in January, nine cargoes for February and 10 cargoes for March, traders said.
ONGC: Oil and Natural Gas Corp, LPG: liquefied petroleum gas, OIL: Oil India Ltd, bbl: barrel, IOC: Indian Oil Corp, ATF: aviation turbine fuel, GST: Goods and Services Tax, CST: Central Sales Tax, VAT: Value Added Tax, HPCL: Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd, mt: million tonnes, RIL: Reliance Industries Ltd, DGH: Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, PSCs: Production Sharing Contracts, bpd: barrels per day, E&P: Exploration and Production, GSPC: Gujarat State Petroleum Corp, PPAC: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, IEF: International Energy Forum, IEA: International Energy Agency, OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, BPL: Below Poverty Line, NDRC: National Development & Reform Commission, US: United States